Wall Street opened up – Investors are pricing in possible election results

On Wall Street, eyes are firmly on Tuesday’s election day. The most recent support surveys give For Donald Trump and Horrible Harrispractically equal chances of winning.

At Tuesday’s open, the S&P 500 was up 0.4 percent, the Nasdq was up 0.5 percent, and the Dow Jones was up 0.1 percent.

The indices were pushed to the green, at least by the large technology sector.

Specialized in data and information mining Palantir reported strong earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts thanks to AI demand. The company’s shares were up 14.4 percent in the morning stock market.

The operator of Trump’s Truth Social social platform Trump Media & Technology Group on the other hand, was on the rise by 13.2 percent. The stock’s volatility has been high as investors speculate on a possible Trump victory.

Reliable election results can be expected early Wednesday Finnish time at the earliest, so the biggest market movements in the US stock exchanges will probably only be seen on Wednesday. However, investors have priced their shares in different scenarios. Citigroupin head of stock trading Stuart Kaiser estimated on Tuesday for Bloomberg that based on the options attached to the S&P 500 index, an average market reaction of 1.8 percent is predicted for Wednesday in one direction or the other.

The biggest moves are likely to be seen in stocks and industries that are seen to benefit from a win for either Trump or Harris.

Since the composition of the US House of Representatives and the Senate will also be decided at the same time, there are more than two possible outcomes.

“We are looking at six different outcomes,” summed up the asset manager Bernsteinin investment manager Alex Chaloff Bloombergille.

“This is a coin toss of a coin toss.”

If there is no uncertainty about the outcome of the election on Wednesday, investors’ attention may quickly shift to the Fed, whose executive board meeting ends on Thursday. The bank is expected to lower the key interest rate by an average of 25 percentage points, or 0.25 percentage points. In September, however, the Fed managed to surprise many forecasters by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. At least the numbers from the US labor market, which have remained strong, speak in favor of a smaller interest rate cut.