Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to prolong the war and says Russian forces can overcome Western support for Ukraine and break Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition. But Russia is likely to face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine these strategic efforts, analysts at the Institute for Military Research (ISW) write.
Putin and the Russian military leadership have committed the Russian military to a year-long offensive along the front line in eastern and northeastern Ukraine aimed at exhausting Ukrainian forces and preventing Ukraine from accumulating the necessary forces and materiel to carry out counteroffensive operations against Russia’s theater-wide initiative.
It is likely that Putin and the Russian military leadership consider maintaining the initiative a strategic priority and have shown that they tolerate protracted offensive operations that result in gradual, creeping progress that falls far short of the intended operational goals.
Russia is conducting a military offensive in Ukraine. / LIBKOS / AP
The Russian military is currently working to eliminate a challenge to its initiative in the Kursk region following the 2024 invasion of Ukraine. in early August, while continuing offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine and pursuing long-term operational objectives.
The Russian army is more intensive in 2024. the summer offensive operation to capture Pokrovsk and reduce the wider Ukrainian territory in the west of the Donetsk region is likely to end in the coming months, although the Russian military command will likely continue to commit Russian forces to a joint strategic effort to maintain the initiative and wear down Ukrainian forces well after that operation ends , regardless of the combat effectiveness of Russian forces.
Putin’s theory of victory is based on the fact that Russian forces will carry out continuous offensive operations indefinitely, but it is likely that these overwhelming offensives will reduce Russian forces and equipment to the point that Russian forces will have to reduce the pace of the offensive at least in certain areas of the front, which will give Ukraine forces the ability to compete and possibly take the initiative on the battlefield in these areas.
Source: www.15min.lt
