War in Ukraine. Analysts have revealed how Russian forces could capitalize on their gains in Torecko

Russian forces recently advanced in Torecko after weeks of accelerated offensive operations and gains in the region, according to a recent report by the Institute for Military Research (ISW).

Analysts remind that in 2024 in June, Russian troops intensified offensive operations in the direction of Toretsk, probably with the aim of reducing the Ukrainian positions in this area and depriving the Ukrainian forces of the opportunity to shell the Russian rear areas in the direction of Khasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, where the main Russian efforts were concentrated at that time.

From 2024 Russian forces have been slowly and gradually approaching Torecko and nearby settlements since June, but in recent weeks have intensified offensive operations and achieved tactical gains in the northern and northwestern parts of Torecko.

“Russian forces appear to be changing their offensive tactics in Torecki in order to suppress Ukrainian forces and promote tactical success in the settlement.

They are likely to use their manpower advantage to intensify offensive operations and push into Torecko’s borders,” analysts note.

They assume that Russian forces are likely to take advantage of the gains made in Torecki and move further west from Torecki and Shcherbynivka towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt at Kostantynivka.

The Russians may be looking to entrench themselves in the northwest of Torecko and in the center of Shcherbynivka in order to move in an attempt to threaten the southern edge of Ukraine’s fortification belt, which is the backbone of the Donetsk region’s defenses.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Telegram/Chasiv Yar

Russian forces may also try to advance further northwest of Torecko and south of Chasiv Yar to destroy the Ukrainian “pocket” in the area and flatten the front line west and southwest of Kostantynivka.

“Such an advance will make it difficult for Ukraine to counter-attack Russian rears southeast of Chasiv Yar, including in the direction of Klishchiivka, and will allow Russian forces to deploy additional artillery systems in the vicinity of Kostantynivka and use drones located in the vicinity of the city,” ISW writes.

Russian forces may also attempt to advance west and northwest of New York and Leonidivka to create a more stable southern flank for the attack on Kostantynivka.

Experts note that Russian forces will likely be able to advance faster in the fields and small settlements north and west of Torecki than they were able to do by moving slowly toward the city of Torecki.

Russian military units in the region may try to repeat the short, tactically important mechanized attacks that took place in 2024. in the fall were organized in the direction of Kurachové and Vuhledar, if they have a sufficient reserve of armored vehicles for this sector.

“Russia’s advance east of Pokrovsk and west of Torecko may be part of an ongoing effort to gain advantages that would allow it to occupy any territory, regardless of its relative insignificance,” notes ISW.

At the same time, according to analysts, Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostantynivka, unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing group of troops in the area with troops from other front areas.

“The Russian military command may continue to give priority to the Pokrovsk and Kurakhov directions, but reduce the priority of offensive operations in other areas of the front, for example, in the Kupyansk or Boriv directions, in order to transfer forces to the Torecko direction,” the analysts write.

At this time, ISW is not prepared to predict how the Russians will deploy forces near Torecko.