Russian forces do not have enough men and equipment to sustain an intensive offensive, and Russia’s offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are likely to end in the coming months or even weeks, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write.
in 2023 Russian offensives in Eastern Ukraine that began in the fall will gradually achieve tactical gains in certain areas of the front, but it is likely that Russian forces will not be able to achieve operationally significant gains, analysts note.
Ukrainian forces are conducting an effective defense deep in the front line, inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, slowly losing ground, but preventing the Russian army from making quick gains on the battlefield.
Ukrainian forces face serious operational challenges and limitations that allow Russian forces to achieve tactically significant gains.
Recently, Russian forces have achieved significant tactical gains, but have not proven that they can achieve operational victories.
Social media photo/Vuhledar
October 1 Russian forces captured Vuhledar in the west of Donetsk Oblast, and this settlement is likely to provide Russian forces with a better tactical position to continue their operational actions to approach the H-15 highway (Donetsk-Zaporizhia) and destroy a large area of Ukrainian defenses in the west of Donetsk Oblast.
The capture of Vuhledar by Russian forces will not in itself fundamentally change the operational situation in the western Donetsk region, and Russian forces will likely try to achieve their operational objectives in the area during the offensive operation in the western Donetsk region, ISW notes.
Russian offensive operations aimed at operationally important objectives, such as attempts to capture Khasiv Yar or push Ukrainian forces from the left (eastern) bank of the Oskil River, respectively, either stalled or proceeded extremely slowly and over a long period of time.
Russian forces continue to prioritize an offensive in Pokrovsk, and the operational value of capturing the city will likely depend in part on whether the Russian military can use it for a wider operational maneuver in the Donetsk region.
Source: www.15min.lt
