“We are not getting out of the loop” of instability

“It is a slap in the face to the Government.” The confession of the Minister of Sumar Ernest Urtasun reveals the state of mind of the Council of Ministers after the latest and unexpected parliamentary defeat of Pedro Sánchez. “I have been stunned,” Urtasun said to his interlocutor, the ERC deputy Francesc-Marc Álvaro. The conversation was captured by an open microphone, in the courtyard of the Lower House, when in the hemicycle it was confirmed that Junts was once again turning its back on the president, voting against the spending cap and once again leaving the legislature hanging in the balance.

For the umpteenth time, Those close to the president stressed that there is no risk of a general advanceThe vote on the spending ceiling will take place again and, on the second attempt, they expect it to be approved. This is essential for the subsequent approval of the General State Budget. For Moncloa, passing the public accounts continues to be “a priority” in order to provide stability to the legislature.

But the truth is that Junts’ “no” once again highlights Sánchez’s extreme parliamentary weaknesson the eve of his assessment of the political year and when he has a series of bad news in different areas. If nothing changes, on Tuesday he will have to testify before Judge Juan Carlos Peinado regarding the investigation into his wife, Moncloa has had to dismiss the director of the women’s institute for profiting from the Puntos Violeta and the Supreme Court has not hesitated to take the amnesty law to the Constitutional Court for violating the right to equality.

“We didn’t expect it, it was a big blow”sums up a socialist deputy, who like the rest found out about Junts’ slamming of the door with the super plenary session on Tuesday already underway. “What I don’t understand is why the support was not tied up properly,” he concluded his diagnosis, in reference to the contacts maintained by María Jesús Montero, the vice president and head of the Treasury.

In private, ministers and senior socialist officials acknowledged their bewilderment. “It was a fit of anger,” PSOE sources summed up, in relation to Sánchez’s meeting with Pere Aragonés in Barcelona, ​​with which they want to pave the way for Salvador Illa’s investiture. But The underlying problem, suggested prominent socialist actors, is the image of political instability that is offered every time an important vote is held. “We are not getting out of the loop.” In addition to saying no to the spending cap, Junts also joined the PP and Vox in opposing the reform of the immigration law.

Carles Puigdemont’s objective is to “destabilize the investiture,” Urtasun concluded his diagnosis. In other words, to make it clear to Sánchez that he has the capacity to make “life impossible” for him in Congress, in the words of a regional socialist leader. “We are in the hands of that man,” he stressed. Publicly, Emiliano García-Page has already suggested the suitability of calling elections: “We must not have to perpetuate the unfeasible,” said the president of Castilla-La Mancha just over a month ago.

The photograph of the voting panel in Congress served Alberto Núñez Feijóo to declare the legislature over despite the fact that only a year has passed since the elections. And, once again, he demanded that elections be called. “I ask Mr. Sánchez to call the head of state to tell him that he will call elections or he will leave,” he said in the plenary session with his deputies and senators, who gave him a standing ovation. “This is not a government, it is a rigmarole,” he once said.. “Sanchez only has the capacity to block the alternative,” he added, but not to govern. “Go away,” he said, emulating José María Aznar with Felipe González.

The PP is saying goodbye to the political year with great electoral results but in the opposition. At the lunch he had with his barons after the National Board of Directors meeting on Monday, Feijóo insisted that they must be prepared for any scenario, although the governability in Catalonia seems to be clearing up.

“My bet is that Sánchez will be screwed into Moncloa,” in the words of a regional president of the PP, in an informal conversation with The HuffPost. “We are in the middle of summer, now the month of August is here. In September, we will be able to better gauge whether Sánchez is in a dead end in Congress,” According to the diagnosis of a second baron, who adds: “If the legislature progresses, we will have to reformulate our strategy.”

And then there is the possibility of a motion of censure. Feijóo does not close the door completely, although to present it he would have to enter into negotiations with Junts or be completely sure that Puigdemont will let Sánchez down. “The numbers don’t add up,” says one regional president. For a sector of the PP, dialogue with Puigdemont is a “red line” that must not be crossed. Others suggest that it is time to weigh the different options.