In France, sales of heat pumps used in heating (air-water, geothermal, hybrid and air-air) would decline by 30% between 2023 and 2024. However, France remains the leading market for heat pumps in Europe with a total of 400,000 products sold this year. Thomas Barquin, senior consultant at LCP Delta, a consultancy specializing in decarbonization, deciphers the French and European landscape.
L’Usine Nouvelle – Why is the heat pump market declining in France?
Thomas Barquin – After Covid, many people invested in their interiors, and with inflation, people pivoted their spending, to the detriment of energy renovation. Furthermore, new construction is in free fall. However, many heat pumps have been installed in these buildings since the new RE2020 regulationsand previously the RT2012. There was also confusion regarding aid schemes such as MaPrimeRénov’, which is very generous but the terms of which change regularlywhich notably led to a drop in requests, especially in 2024. This only applies to overall renovations.
What about on a European scale?
Aid systems should be stabilized. France is not an isolated case: in Italy, the “super bonus” of the Covid period – a tax credit up to 110% of the investment for the installation of a heating appliance – was modified and quickly reduced. Other schemes could also be reduced from next year, such as the Ecobonus. In Spain, there is no government support for the installation of heat pumps this year, but a recovery could be possible next year. In the United Kingdom, it is quite stable, the amount of aid was increased from 5,000 to 7,500 pounds sterling at the end of 2023 and aid is confirmed at least until 2028 for the installation of a heat pump air-water or geothermal energy, which offers real visibility for the consumer.
Could the market recover quickly?
At the European level, we expect a slight recovery for next year, with new construction picking up in certain countries, except in France. Furthermore, the gradual ban on the installation of gas boilers in new buildings should boost the heat pump market as well as aid. France has already made progress on the subject with RE2020, while Germany, Italy and Spain have also restricted it in new construction. There are backtracking on renovation bans, particularly in the Netherlands and Great Britain. The market is expected to accelerate by the end of the decade.
Source: www.usinenouvelle.com
