“Western countries do not want to be accused of being afraid of Moscow’s threats”

718 readings

Russian authorities are preparing to change their nuclear doctrine for the first time since 2020. Vladimir Putin announced the amendments in the summer of 2024, and on September 25 a meeting of the Russian Security Council on nuclear deterrence was held in the Kremlin. A day later, the Kremlin said Putin’s proposed amendments to the doctrine should be seen as a “clear signal” to the West. The independent Russian publication Meduza asked Pavel Podvig, head of the Russian nuclear weapons project at the UN Institute for Disarmament Studies, whether there is a risk of Moscow deciding on a nuclear attack.

Asked if the assessments of pro-Russian propagandists, according to which the world is closer to the beginning of a nuclear war than during the Cuban missile crisis, are an exaggeration, the Russian expert says “yes”. “In my view, we are still noticeably further from such a state than we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis. There, first of all, the missiles were in a reasonable state of readiness: intercontinental missiles were being prepared on the territory of the Soviet Union, cruise missiles were deployed in Cuba – people were actually transporting them, they had installed nuclear warheads. They were submarines with nuclear torpedoes. Then the possibility of using nuclear weapons was physically closer, but now we are talking about a situation where Russian nuclear warheads are in storage, when there is no direct confrontation between Russia and the West. Consequently, in order to reach the point where nuclear weapons can be used, several more steps must be taken”, explains Pavel Podvig.

The West could react exactly the other way around

As for the Kremlin’s idea that updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine would cause Western countries not to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets on Russian soil, the expert says it’s hard to predict. “On the one hand, there are arguments in favor of the fact that allowing such strikes, in principle, will not change anything. On the other hand, it is clear that (Western countries) do not want to find themselves in a situation where they can be accused of being afraid of threats from Moscow. There is a very difficult balance here, and in this sense, perhaps Moscow’s statements can work exactly the opposite”. That is, it is not excluded that a change of doctrine, on the contrary, will cause Western countries to give this permission as soon as possible to show that they are not susceptible to blackmail from the Kremlin.

Asked what the West’s reaction to Putin’s statement might be in practical terms, the Russian expert said: “As far as I can see, the idea for now is not to attach too much importance to it.” I think the position will continue to be this: we do everything right, we will continue to do what we do. As we can see, the long-range weapons debate has not been resolved – and may remain unresolved. But it is clear that no one will admit that this was done in response to specific threats from Moscow.”