what could happen to real estate prices in Russia in 2025 –

In 2024, the growth of real estate prices in Russia slowed down compared to 2023, both in the primary market and in the secondary market. RT was told about this by the National Credit Ratings agency.

Company experts largely explain the observed dynamics by a drop in demand: citizens’ interest in buying housing has sharply decreased after the completion of a massive preferential mortgage program and a record increase in the Central Bank’s key rate. Against this background, analysts do not expect a significant increase in the price of square meters in 2025.

“In the primary market, prices are likely to rise slightly above inflation, which will mainly be due to both an increase in construction costs and a limitation in the supply of new projects by developers. Stagnation is likely in the secondary market, which is why more and more potential sellers of real estate will rent it out,” suggested Alexander Divakov, director of the group of ratings of financial institutions in the NKR, in a conversation with RT.

A similar point of view is shared by Valery Tumin, director of Russian and CIS markets at fäm Properties. According to him, in conditions of a cooling market, “high dynamics of price growth cannot be expected.”

“Primary goods will probably rise in price within the inflation range – by about 6-8%. In turn, the cost of apartments on the secondary market will remain at the same level or will decline. Perhaps there will be a correction after a period of rapid growth, when prices for resale buildings tried to catch up with the cost per square meter in a new building,” added RT’s interlocutor.

Note that the cost of housing in Russia began to grow rapidly in 2020. Then from January to December 1st quarter. m in a facility under construction has risen in price on average across the country by more than 29%, from 62.2 thousand to 80.5 thousand rubles, and in the secondary market – by almost 22%, from 67.1 thousand to 81.7 thousand . rubles, according to materials from the federal company Etazhi.

Subsequently, according to the organization, the sharp growth continued, and at the end of 2021 the values ​​increased to 103.6 thousand and 91.3 thousand rubles, respectively (+29 and 12%), in 2022 – to 117.5 thousand and 109.6 thousand (+13 and 20%), in 2023 – up to 128.6 thousand and 121.7 thousand (+9.4 and 11%), and by December 2024 they reached 135.7 thousand and 127.1 thousand (+5.5 and 4.4% from the beginning of the year).

Analysts believe that one of the reasons for this rise in price of square meters is the long-term effect of mass preferential mortgages. Let us recall that the program allowed all residents of the country to obtain a housing loan at a low interest rate, and the difference between the market and subsidized rates was reimbursed to banks by the state.

The authorities launched this mechanism in 2020 to support demand for real estate during the pandemic and later extended it several times. The measure turned out to be effective in the first stages, but then led to a rapid growth in mortgage lending in Russia, which resulted not only in a sharp price jump, but also in an increase in the difference between the cost of housing in the primary and secondary markets.

As a result, from July 1, 2024, the government decided to curtail preferential mortgages for all citizens and maintain only targeted support measures. We are talking about special loan programs for families with children, IT specialists, residents of rural areas, as well as the Far East and the Arctic zone.

“Of course, the cessation of mass preferential mortgages stopped the sharp increase in the cost of housing in the primary market. Targeted programs allow fewer people to purchase housing, but at a more comfortable price tag. Due to this, there is hope for the improvement of the real estate market in terms of reducing the difference in the cost of housing in the secondary and primary markets,” Ekaterina Stashkova, product manager for the “Mortgage” product at the “Compare” financial marketplace, told RT.

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According to Alexander Divakov, the policy of the Central Bank will continue to remain an important factor for the real estate market. According to the expert, this year the regulator is unlikely to significantly reduce the key rate, so market interest rates on mortgages (excluding preferential programs) will continue to remain high. This, in turn, could further slow growth in demand and housing prices.

At the same time, apartments in Russian new buildings are unlikely to begin to become cheaper, says Mikhail Goldberg, head of the analytical center DOM.RF. According to him, most developers will not reduce prices to attract buyers, since over the past few years companies have “accumulated a sufficient margin of financial strength” and can wait out a period of low demand without large losses.

“Of course, targeted price reductions and targeted discounts are possible for individual projects and with individual developers. However, such measures will not be widespread,” Goldberg added in a conversation with RT.