General Luigi Chiapperini’s analysis on Fanpage.it on a possible imminent Russian attack on Ukrainian-occupied Kursk: “It is a necessary rather than final attack. The Russian counteroffensive in the area is already underway.”
Interview with Luigi Chiapperini
Retired Army Corps General from the lagoon.
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According to the New York Times the Russians “have amassed 50 thousand soldiers in the region of Kurskincluded North Korean military, who are preparing for offensive actions” to reconquer the lost territory. According to the sources of the American newspaper, an attack would be imminent“in the next few days”. But is it really like that?
Fanpage.it he talked about it with Luigi Chiapperiniretired Army Corps general of the lagoon Luigi Chiapperini, member of the Army Study Center, former planner in the NATO Kosovo Force command, commander of the NATO national units in Kosovo in 2001 and the UN in Lebanon in 2006 and of the multinational contingent NATO in Afghanistan in 2012, author of the books “The conflict in Ukraine” (Special Prize of the Casentino Jury 2023) and “Geopolitics and Strategy” (Edizioni Artestampa, 2024).
General Chiapperini, according to sources from the New York Times, Russia is massing 50 thousand soldiers to attack the Kursk region, occupied by Ukraine. How true is this information?
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“In reality, he may have already amassed them in recent weeks and is now launching them against the Ukrainians in an attempt to break the salient they have achieved in the region. It would be a contingent that also includes the troops made available by North Korea. The Russians will first aim towards Malaya Loknya and then further south towards Sudzha to push the Ukrainians back to the international border. Among other things, the military operations are behind the times dictated by Putin who in recent months had ordered his generals to liberate the Kursk region by October 1st. Instead we are at the end of November and the Ukrainians are continuing to fight quite orderly even if outnumbered.”
Many called it Russia’s final attack on Ukraine. Is it really like that?
“I think not. It is a necessary rather than final attack. The operations in that area have the aim of washing away the shame of the foreign occupation of Russian soil, a traumatic event for Moscow that has not happened since the Second World War. The attempted decisive attack on the Ukrainian forces is instead taking it south towards Prokovsk to complete the occupation of the rest of the region of Donetsk. Should the Russians succeed in conquering that city and subsequently Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the entire Donbass would be in their hands achieving a notable result. They could also reactivate new fronts such as towards Zaporizhzhia to enlarge the buffer zone north of Crimea. But it won’t be easy.”
What could happen with a possible Russian attack on Kursk?
“The Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk area is already underway. Being able to liberate the areas currently occupied by the Ukrainians is a must not only as I was saying to re-establish the borders but above all to steal one of the few cards that the Ukrainians can play in the future in case of negotiations for peace. Kiev will try to defend those territories with its nails for this very reason. The Ukrainian army, while continuing to lose positions in recent months, is not routed and is fighting in an orderly manner also thanks to the Western aid which will continue to arrive at least until the changeover of the US president, expected in January 2025. However, Donald Trump’s inauguration could change the cards on the table”.
We are heading towards winter. How do you think the war will evolve in the coming weeks with the advance of the cold?
“The past winters of war have been spent in fighting almost always limited to inhabited centers as in the case of Bakhmut. There have been no major movement battles and it probably won’t happen during next winter either unless it turns out to be milder than previous ones. The Russians could therefore remain trapped in the conquest of Prokovsk in the south and Sudzha in Kurskunless the Ukrainian army breaks up, which could suffer from low morale as a consequence of the real novelty of this phase of the war which concerns the possible initiatives announced by the winner of the US elections”.
Source: www.fanpage.it
