Climate change caused by human activities has led to widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and biosphere. Their consequences and hazardous weather conditions are undoing development gains and threatening the well-being of people and the planet, according to a new multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Concentrations of greenhouse gases are at record levels, fueling future temperature increases. The gap between the goals and the reality of the shows remains large. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, reaching 57.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Global average concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide have also reached new records.
Under current policies, there is a two-thirds chance that global warming will reach 3°C this century, according to the United in Science report. In order to limit global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C (above the pre-industrial period), global emissions by 2030 must be reduced by 28 percent and 42 percent, respectively, compared to the levels projected by current policies.
This report explores how advances in the natural and social sciences, new technologies and innovations advance our understanding of the Earth system and can be key to climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.
Because of all this, urgent action is needed to reduce emissions, as well as adapting to climate change. However, one in six countries still do not have a national adaptation plan, and a significant funding gap remains, with international public funding for adaptation declining from 2020.
“We need urgent and ambitious action now to support sustainable development, climate action and disaster risk reduction. The decisions we make today can be the difference between a future collapse or a breakthrough to a better world,” said Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary General.
The United Nations Future Summit provides a unique opportunity to revitalize and relaunch our shared commitment to global goals, said the report, which was compiled by a consortium of United Nations agencies, meteorological organizations and scientific and research bodies. The report also includes the contribution of young and early-career scientists, who are the agents of change for the future.
Advances in meteorology, climate, water and related environmental and social sciences provide enormous opportunities to support the full realization of global goals, including the Paris Agreement, the 2030 Agenda, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the EW4All initiative.
A revolution in weather forecasting
Thanks to rapid advances, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) enable more accurate weather modeling that is faster, cheaper and more accessible to countries with lower incomes and limited computing capacity. Some assessments have shown that AI/ML has potential in predicting dangerous events such as tropical cyclones and longer-term phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña.
Although there are great opportunities, we face many challenges, especially the limited quality and availability of data. Current AI/ML models do not include the more difficult to predict variables associated with the ocean, land, cryosphere and carbon cycle.
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Source: energetskiportal.rs
