What remains of Gaza, ravaged by a year of Israeli bombings?

What remains of Gaza after a year of Israeli bombing? Beyond the human toll which is counted in tens of thousands (42,000 according to the Ministry of Health led by Hamas), the enclave has been largely razed, leading international institutions or the media to mobilize the concepts of ‘«urbicide»or from «domicide» to describe the massive destruction of buildings in the enclave. This devastation, for a year, is reported by numerous images, such as those filmed by a UN convoy in the north of Gaza City on August 17, or even this drone shot taken in the same areabroadcast by photographer Abdallah El Hajj on October 4. Sequences which reveal an apocalypse landscape. But they are not enough to account for the overall magnitude.

63% of buildings destroyed, totally or partially, or possibly damaged

Since October 10, 2023, Unosat, the United Nations satellite center, has regularly documented the subject. At the end of September, the latter made public his ninth “Comprehensive assessment of the damage caused to the Gaza Strip”. Based on the latest images collected on September 6, 2024, it appears that 52,564 buildings were “destroyed“, 18,913 buildings were “severely damaged”, 56,710 were “moderately damaged» , et 35 591 «possibly damaged“. That is a total, by adding these four categories, of 163,778 buildings, representing 66% of the total buildings in the Gaza Strip. This total percentage was 63% in July55 % in mai35 % in March30 % in January.

The distribution of damage visible on the map, although affecting the entire enclave, overlaps more or less with the population density of Gaza, as shown this CNN diagram.

In its methodology transmitted to CheckNewsUnosat explains categorizing as “destroyed” a building when all or most of the structure is visibly collapsed in images taken from space. “Severely damaged» concerns buildings where at least part of the roof or walls have collapsed, when the category “moderately damaged» includes buildings whose visible destruction is partial, often adjacent to more significant destruction. The category “possibly damaged» contains buildings without visible damage on satellite images, but where debris and traces of heavy vehicles are observed in their direct proximity.

This visual interpretation work is carried out by UN teams by comparing satellite images from different dates, where other organizations instead use algorithms or artificial intelligence. “A method that takes longer to carry out but is more precise than what AI can produce in this urban context… for the moment”, adds Unosat to CheckNews.

A level of destruction sometimes underestimated

The agency also specifies in his document “that this is a preliminary analysis which has not yet been validated in the field”. If in certain cases (razed buildings or neighborhoods) the destruction is obvious on satellite imagery, the technique may have its limits. The process, using a vertical vision (often very slightly oblique) with varying degrees of precision, sometimes yields false positives, and more often under-evaluations. The extent of damage inflicted on buildings and infrastructure is not necessarily visible from the roof or exterior of a building. This is shown by some visibly under-listed areas, where authenticated images compared by CheckNews show a level of destruction much higher than that recorded by the UN, particularly in Jabalia or in the north of Gaza City.

Beyond the raw figures, the nature of the infrastructure destroyed was also documented. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) mentioned August 1st that two thirds of Gaza’s schools, more than 120 of them, were damaged or destroyed.

Another analysis from Unosat (also based on satellite imagery) dedicated to the Gazan road network recorded 68% of damaged roads in the enclave based on images from August 18. The United Nations Environment Program highlights in its June report that the damage inflicted on the electricity network, from power stations to solar panels, represents a destruction of 61.5% of the total distribution network of the enclave.

Unosat also recorded that 103 of the 150 square kilometers of agricultural land in the enclave (which represents a total of 41% of its surface area) were damaged. A quantification carried out using NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index, or vegetation index by normalized difference), a reference indicator in the satellite imagery sector which makes it possible to observe the evolution of plant health. According to images from September 26, 2024compared by Unosat to the average of the last seven years over the same period, approximately 68% of permanent crop fields in the Gaza Strip showed a significant decline in health and density (from this index NDVI). An analysis which, again, remains to be confirmed in the field.

The destruction visualized by its debris

Finally, the UN services put forward a final indicator, modeling the quantity of debris in the enclave linked to the conflict. In an infographic published in August, Bloombergtaking up the UN work, thus evoked 42 million tonnes of rubble from Rafah, in the south, to Beit Hanoun, in the north.

The United Nations Environment Program published a preliminary report on the subject in June. This indicator, constructed from Unosat data on destruction, makes it possible to represent in a different way the level of destruction, but also its consequences over time. Thus, according to the UN document, just clearing the debris could take between eight and twelve years.

Contacted by CheckNews, the United Nations Environment Program explains that this approach aims to provide information on the future management of debris, and to plan for reconstruction. A horizon that looks like a mirage at the moment, as it seems so distant and hypothetical. The bombings on Gaza have not stopped. This weekend a new school was targeted by the Israeli army in the center of the enclave. This is the sixth since the beginning of September. On Sunday, the IDF ordered all Gazans present in the north of the enclave to evacuate “immediately” towards the south, announcing new large-scale operations in the area which is already the most destroyed in Gaza.