A year later, a good number of cement manufacturers, steelmakers, chemists and petrochemists claim to have made progress. “These roadmaps created the conditions for action. We are now launched and we are keeping the tempo”assures Xavier Galliot, the sustainable development manager of the Roquette emmer, who must sign before the end of the year the financing agreement for the biomass plant responsible for supplying its Lestrem factory (North), from the end 2027. By adding the installation of two mechanical heat recompressors and process optimizations already validated, “by the end of the year we will have validated decisions which will allow us to meet more than two thirds of our commitments for 2030, or 165,000 tonnes of CO2 less”welcomes Xavier Galliot.
The industrialist is not the only one to have moved on to practical work according to the survey carried out by the editorial staff of L’Usine Nouvelle among almost all of the 32 industrialists who have signed ecological transition contracts – only Arc France, Versalis, Alsachemie and Solvay did not wish to respond to us. For many, the launch of these projects preceded the validation of these “memorandum of understanding” with the State, as presented by Bercy. Near Nancy, the Novacarb baking soda factory should achieve a 40% reduction in its emissions by 2025 – with a 47% reduction target in 2030 – with its exit from coal, replaced by a biomass power plant. In metals, the steelmaker ArcelorMittal and Aluminum Dunkerque have invested heavily in recent months to increase the incorporation of recycled metals in the Fos furnaces for the first, and in those of Dunkerque for the second.
Decisions pending for structuring projects
Another example: Eqiom began construction work on a new kiln at the start of 2024 at a cost of 315 million euros – including 39 million in public subsidies – for its Lumbres cement plant, in Pas-de-Calais. With the key being a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions per tonne of clinker when it operates in 2026. The other cement manufacturer Heidelberg has strengthened its investment plan to strengthen energy efficiency, replace fossil fuels and reduce the clinker content of its French cement plants by 450 to 650 million euros since 2020. More than half of the budget concerns the transformation, already well underway, of the Airvault site in Deux-Sèvres. “The investments that remain to be made are massive. We still need to address two thirds of CO2 emissions from cement plants, said to be fatal, linked to the decarbonization of limestone.summarizes the cement manufacturer. The implementation of capture and storage solutions, envisaged by the industrialist, will require several hundred million additional euros and “can only be done with strong support from public authorities.
Heidelberg is not alone in procrastinating. On the most structuring decarbonization projects, no industrialist has yet taken the plunge and confirmed an investment decision. An equipment manufacturer, whose solutions are integrated into several large projects, confirms “a breath that fell a little”. “We have entire teams mobilized to respond to studies. But we are still far from execution. points to its leader.
Public subsidies on hold
The long political wavering, between June and September, did not help to overcome the wait-and-see attitude of businesses. With the publication in July of the CO2 capture and storage strategy, which should represent 4 to 8 million tonnes of CO2 saved in 2030 for the 50 sites according to their roadmaps, “we consider that the State is doing its part well”manages Holcim. “But all this must still be confirmed by the new government and of course first and foremost in the budgets”warns the cement manufacturer, which must open a carbon capture demonstration platform in 2025 on its Martre-Tolosane site. The Franco-Swiss group also points out the slowness of administrative processing times “out of step with the priority that the State wanted to give to the decarbonization of industrial sites” and the lack of resources of local authorities, particularly in the smallest municipalities in the rural sector, to advance these issues.
The outstanding question remains above all that of financing. To make these investments of several hundred million euros in less mature technologies profitable, state subsidies are often essential. “The group will not launch without assurance of public financing” testifies Antoine Hecker, the head of energy transition at the fertilizer manufacturer Lat Nitrogen, which is banking on CO2 capture within the Eco2 Normandy consortium. Now that the ministerial cabinets have been named, Nicolas Broutin, the president of Yara France confirms that it will be necessary “resume discussions and projects quickly”.
Like the others, the group is awaiting the result of the call for expressions of interest, closed on September 30, which should be used to deploy new subsidies for the largest investment projects. Discussed since the beginning of 2022, carbon contracts for difference (CCfD) must limit risks to the profitability of projects by guaranteeing manufacturers subject to the European carbon market a minimum price per tonne of carbon over fifteen years. Late ? “We remain within the initial planned schedule,” Bercy defends itself, even if Germany is a few months ahead. The first CCfDs should be validated at the beginning of 2025, after the launch of a call for projects and its notification in Brussels.
2025, the moment of truth for decarbonization
For industrialists, we are in any case getting closer “of the pivotal moment”, to listen to Jacques Chanteclair, the general manager of Southern Europe of the lime manufacturer Lhoist, who has already obtained more than 100 million euros in European funds to test the full-scale capture of CO2 at the outlet of its chimneys. “We do not know what the subsidy amounts will be. One thing is certain: a carbon price of around 70 euros per tonne is far below what we need to make our investment profitable. The shortfall is close to a hundred million euros.evaluates the industrialist who reserves his final investment decision for the beginning of 2025, as soon as possible subsidies are known.
Depending on this, not all decarbonization projects put on paper will necessarily happen. Even if public subsidies are not everything. The largest emitter of CO2 ArcelorMittal obtained 850 million euros of public support from the State in January 2024, after the green light from Brussels. Estimated at 1.7 billion euros in total, the project must involve the installation of a direct reduction unit (DRI) in Dunkirk and two electric furnaces to produce coke-free steel. But since then, nothing has changed. “On the Dunkirk site, the engineering studies, which will more precisely determine the amount of investments, are taking place according to schedule”assures the steelmaker in writing, which announces a final decision before the end of 2024. Global production overcapacity has cooled the group.
Technological solutions still not mature
“Industrialists need certainty. Sometimes green investments are more expensive than the cost of inaction.observes Matthieu Dussud, partner at McKinsey, who has just completed a study with Fabrique de l’industrie on the subject. The expert points out the project execution capacity. In defense of manufacturers, certain major technological choices still remain subject to uncertainties. Even if several steelmakers, including the German Thyssenkrupp, are more advanced in their green steel production projects, the technology remains new. And above all dependent on the availability of low-carbon hydrogen in sufficient quantity and at a competitive price, which is still far from being the case.
Like Humens, certain manufacturers have also reviewed their options in recent months. “The results of the pre-studies carried out with a view to doing without gas have led us to abandon the hydrogen option for electrification”says Anaïs Voy-Gillis, the group’s strategic director, even if the group is now targeting the range of emissions reductions promised for 2030, with a reduction of 60%. Saint-Gobain PAM came to the same conclusion, preferring to choose a “more mature technology” for its foundry in Pont-à-Mousson.
The question of the price of electricity
Beyond technology, other uncertainties weigh on the profitability of these investments, even heavily subsidized. Starting with the availability and especially the price of electricity. Negotiations between the State and EDF on the regulatory framework which should replace Arenh after 2025 suggest an electron price of around 70 euros per megawatt hour. Even if Bruno Le Maire had suggested that this framework could be renegotiated, “with a gas price around 30 to 40 euros per MWh and the current prices of carbon quotas, it is much more profitable to produce using fossil fuels than electricity at a price of 70 euros per MWh», underlines an industrialist, whose factories do not appear in the 50 most polluting sites but who wonders about the location of his future investments in carbon-free production outside of France.
Other obstacles are also slowing the decline in emissions. It took several months for the lime manufacturer Lhoist to understand who to talk to in order to create a local biomass sector capable of supplying its site in the Meuse. Discussions are underway with the Meuse department and forestry municipalities. “Customers must play the game. Our investment decision in 2025 will be linked to our ability to find long-term partners” summarizes Jacques Chanteclair.
A market for green products to emerge
How to speed up the movement? Much depends on the ability of manufacturers to charge premiums for their greenest products. “We will produce significantly more expensively but there is a market for green lime in certain applications”assessed Lhoist. For other products, such as green steel, the calculation may be more difficult. In cement, Heidelberg is campaigning for “book and claim” mechanisms in order to promote the purchase of green cement, on the principle of what already exists for sustainable fuels in aviation (SAF). regulatory impetus.
For manufacturers, however, there is no longer really time to procrastinate. “The time we lose deciding on investments is starting to weigh on us”recognizes Nicolas Broutin, whose most structuring project – capturing and storing CO2 from its fertilizer factory in Le Havre – could at best be operational in 2029-2030 if it is validated in 2025. On this horizon, the gradual decline free carbon quotas – before their abolition in 2034 – should already be felt in the financial balance sheets of manufacturers. And elsewhere in Europe, other projects are progressing, such as on the Dutch Yara site.
Enough to serve as a spur. On its chemical platform in Tavaux (Jura), the chemist Syensqo is now working to reduce its emissions to 50,000 tonnes of CO2 in 2030, “this is well beyond the most ambitious scenario set out in the ecological transition contract signed last year”underlines Yves Courtemanche, director of the Tavaux site. The final decision is also expected in 2025. The moment of truth for the decarbonization of the industry is coming soon.
Solène Davesne, with Franck Stassi, Laurent Rousselle, Anne-Sophie Bellaiche, Julien Cottineau, Nathan Mann, Philippe Bohlinger and Coralie Donas
Source: www.usinenouvelle.com
