Will Majdan be organized in Budapest if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election?

Sure, it seems clear that

Washington’s attitude towards Budapest could change radically if Donald Trump were to win,

at the same time, the most important issue is still the functioning of the economy and the improvement of competitiveness. The Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation at their expert event a newly published report they searched for the answer to the question that

how are the economic and foreign policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump different.

The chairman of the board of trustees, Péter Törcsi, also emphasized in his presentation that the situation is obviously complex and that Donald Trump’s victory in November would be more favorable for our country, mainly based on the friendly relationship between the American politician and the Hungarian prime minister, however, considering the protectionist’s economic goals, the situation is no longer so self-evident , especially if, after the election of the Republican presidential candidate, he actually introduces a 10-20 percent protective tariff against foreign companies.

In connection with the election of Kamala Harris as president, he came to the conclusion that the American-Hungarian political relationship has already reached its lowest point. I don’t know how it could get any worse. Péter Törcsi believed that we can expect neither improvement nor deterioration. While in the case of Trump, our country can be in Europe a friendliest countryeven in spite of our existing relationship with China.

– they stated in their analysis.

At the same time, our economic relations are still excellent for the time being, despite the current bad political relations, bilateral trade has been improving for years, and the economy can function independently of them, so it can be called less a result of the current administration. As can be seen from Oeconomus’ analysis, bilateral trade has expanded to an unprecedented extent in recent years,

And at the end of 2022, 1,700 American companies employed 110,000 people in Hungary.

According to 2024 data, the United States is the third largest investor in Hungary; approximately 10 percent of the approximately 100 billion euros of direct capital investment (FDI) stock can be linked to the United States. The coronavirus epidemic dramatically reduced American FDI (from about HUF 335 billion in 2019 to less than HUF 64 billion in 2020), but in 2022 it already amounted to more than HUF 700 billion, which is considered a record.

US Inflation Rate (2021-2024)

• January 2021: 1.4 percent,
• June 2022: 9.1 percent (this is the peak of the recent period),
• May 2024: 3.3 percent,
• June 2024: 3 percent,
• July 2024: 2.9 percent,
• August 2024: 2.5 percent.

Sebesty Horváth highlighted that both presidential candidates have economic promises that may indirectly but negatively affect our country. Harris communicates more domestically, he would create an economy based on equality of opportunity, expanding social assistance and the availability of cheap health insurance. He hopes for additional revenue of 1.8 trillion dollars from the tax increases and the wealth tax. At the same time, he would introduce programs to stimulate industry and demand, which would strengthen American companies.

Even if Donald Trump is elected, the fence would not be made of sausages.

If elected, the Republican presidential candidate would impose a general protective tariff of 10-20 percent on the imports of all foreign companies.

This will clearly reduce the American demand for European and therefore Hungarian products. Donald Trump’s car import punitive duty may adversely affect the Hungarian economy, since 8 percent of our country’s car exports, worth more than one billion dollars, go to the United States. Cars and their parts account for 23 percent of our trade with the United States. When supplemented with batteries and other electronic equipment, this ratio reaches 70 percent – they warn in the analysis also written by Sebestyén Horváth.

At the same time, Trump also has the idea of ​​imposing a 100 percent protective tariff on all foreign car imports, although according to experts, this also includes the businessman’s tactic, with which he tries to create a situation in which there is room for maneuver and concessions can be made. For example, it was said that he would not put his potential allies in a difficult situation, so he would be willing to negotiate separately even with Hungary.

Evolution of the US federal budget balance:

• 2020: -3130 billion dollars,
• 2021: -$2770 billion,
• 2022: -$1.38 billion,
• 2023: -$1.7 trillion,
• 2024: -$1.9 trillion (estimate).

China, on the other hand, would fare particularly badly, the companies of the East Asian superpower can count on protective tariffs of 50-60 percent in the event of a Republican victory in November.

At the same time, he also highlighted that Trump’s goals include limiting the independence of the FED, which aims to lower interest rates, which would also have a serious impact on the global economy.

He also spoke about the indebtedness of the United States, the composition of which has changed recently, and currently Japan, and not China, is the largest foreign creditor, followed by the member states of the European Union. By the way, only 35 percent of the total national debt of the United States is foreign.

The development of the national debt of the United States as a proportion of the gross domestic product (quarterly):

• 2005 Q1: 60.6 percent,
• 2010 Q1: 88.1 percent,
• 2016 Q1: 103.6 percent,
• 2020 Q1: 133 percent,
• 2024 Q1: 121.6 percent.

Péter Törcsi also spoke about the fact that most European Union leaders were interested in Harris’ victory, explaining this by saying that it is a comfortable position for the Oval Office to dictate issues such as the Russian-Ukrainian war or the Middle East crisis.

According to analysts, if Harris is elected, the US policy on Ukraine would not change. Trump, on the other hand, would end the conflict as soon as possible, or at least prevent the escalation. This would lead to economic growth in Europe, which would also increase consumption in our country and stimulate investments. At the same time, he described the situation well when he spoke about how the Nord Stream will not be rebuilt overnight.

According to the economic research foundation, the relationship between the United States and Hungary has deteriorated thanks to the progressive democratic administration. Thus, the most important aspect is what will happen to our country after the election of Kamala Harris. Could the situation be worse with the victory of the democratic candidate – we asked the HUF 700 billion question.

According to the president of the board of trustees, the election of Harris would present new tasks to both the United States and Hungary. It would be a new situation, a negative new situation if Harris won and a positive new situation if Trump. He sees that

political pressure is also maintained by the Harris government, but according to him, it is not in the interest of the American administration to promote a real change of government in such a way that it is spectacular, as happened in Georgia or Ukraine.

However, he admitted that David Pressman there has been no precedent for the public actions of an American ambassador to date, but the American response to the strongest economy so far was that Washington canceled the double taxation agreement in force since 1979.

– Of course, the situation could be worse, but I don’t think it would be so bad that, in the event of a Harris victory, it would mean facilitating an open change of government with American influence. There would be American influence, the intention of the American administration would be to have a change of government in Hungary in ’26, but I don’t think that they would organize a Euro-Majdan in Budapest – said the expert.