On the night of September 27 to 28, the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, were targeted by intense bombardments launched by Israel. It was in these strikes that Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, died. As The Guardian reminds us, This is not the first time that Israel has sponsored the assassination of a figure from the Shiite Islamist political party. In 1992, the former secretary general of Hezbollah, Abbas Moussaoui, was also killed in Israeli army strikes.
At the time, many Israeli analysts predicted that Moussaoui’s death would lead to the death of Hezbollah. However, the opposite happened, since the man was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah who then led and strengthened Hezbollah for three decades, until his death a few days ago.
Today, the same questions are coming back about Israel’s strategy. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah commanders will they be fatal to the survival of the organization or will they on the contrary be the reason for a general conflagration in the Middle East?
When Israel killed important members of Hamas – notably Sheikh Yassin, founder of the movement, in 2004, and more recently Ismaël Haniyeh, the former political leader assassinated in July 2024 – the strategic advantages of the Jewish state in the strip of Gaza found themselves diminished and the conflict escalated.
Regarding the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank, Sanam Vakil, expressed herself in these terms on (formerly Twitter): “Hezbollah is militarily and operationally degraded, it knows that any response will lead to a conflict it cannot win. But if the party does not react, it will lose all legitimacy.” She continues: “However, it must be remembered that although Hezbollah and Hamas are greatly weakened, they have not necessarily been eliminated. The continuation of the conflict will undoubtedly mobilize, even radicalize, a new generation of fighters.”
Will Hezbollah become even more violent?
Until now, Hezbollah’s strikes on Israel have been relatively limited, with the movement using more light anti-tank weapons. But in the recent escalation, Hezbollah has increased its use of more sophisticated weapons, such as suicide drones. A model that Israel has difficulty countering, despite its Iron Dome.
While Hezbollah has been led until now by an aging generation, it is not certain that replacements will share the same desire to keep the conflict below the threshold of all-out war. It is obvious that the first Iranian response will be to reify Hassan Nasrallah as a martyr and a “master of the resistance”, so that he remains the figurehead of the movement.
The editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper L’Orient-Le Jour, Anthony Samrani, immediately warned against Hezbollah’s underestimation: “We know nothing about what is happening inside the party, nor the intentions of the Iranians.” He continues: “Israel launched thousands of strikes that likely destroyed part of Hezbollah’s arsenal. However, neither the 150,000 missiles and rockets, nor the tens of thousands of armed men who form the militia, disappeared in the snap of a finger.”
For Nicholas Blanford, expert on the conflict in the Middle East, the succession of Hezbollah will be assured, but the delay will be important: “If other important leaders were killed, this could complicate and delay the organization and control of the party, making it more vulnerable to Israel’s next actions.”
Lebanon and Hezbollah are at a key moment in their future. Each response to Israel’s attacks will not remain without consequences, as Herzi Halevi, Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, indicated: “Anyone who threatens the citizens of theANDThe state of Israel will be reached, whether in the north, in the south, or even in more distant places.
Source: www.slate.fr
