Will the negotiations on the budget at Bercy explode the New Popular Front?

POLITICS – There is no alternative. For Olivier Faure, “only one possible way” : the search for compromise. Since the start of the week, socialists, ecologists and communists have been locked up for hours with the Minister of the Economy Éric Lombard to try to obtain “advances” as part of a budget for 2025 which the country is still lacking.

A strategy widely criticized by La France insoumise, which accuses its partners of turning their back on the aspirations raised by the New Popular Front. The divide is not new. As early as December, and the fall of Michel Barnier’s government, PS, PCF and Ecologists agreed to go to the Élysée to negotiate the identity of the future Prime Minister. Which had already greatly displeased the Insoumis. This time, the negotiations around a possible non-censorship agreement and a budget more favorable to the left are the final straw.

“This way of negotiating behind the back of the NFP and against its program is a total disrespect for our alliance”stormed Jean-Luc Mélenchon who, however, is not too worried because, he believes, “the traditional little left has nothing to offer and its negotiators are just ridiculously servile”. Harsh words, which illustrate the exasperation of his political camp. His right-hand man Manuel Bompard accuses his allies of “negotiate the weight of the channels with Bayrou, Borne and Retailleau”.

“It really negotiates”

But the three components of the NFP who accept the invitation to Bercy do not see it that way, and refute any treason trial. “It negotiates, it really discusses, which is a big change”defended PS deputy Philippe Brun on Radio J, explaining that the objective of the socialists is “to achieve before Tuesday a series of measures which could justify non-censorship on the part of the left and environmentalists”. The deadline of January 14, and therefore François Bayrou’s general policy declaration, is on everyone’s minds.

Because socialists, ecologists and communists are convinced: the government, cornered by the need to provide France with a budget, must give in on certain measures. The PS has already made its shopping list: non-removal of 4,000 teaching positions as the previous budget planned, “ significant increase » of the minimum wage, protection of the AME… The communists are waiting for a stronger “taxation of capital and higher incomes without increasing taxes on the French”. As for the hot topic of pension reform, to which the Macronists are clinging, the left hopes to influence the government.

“The discussion continues”rejoiced Olivier Faure on TF1, ensuring that in the camp opposite, there was no «pass of veto» on the starting age.

“There is nothing to negotiate”

The PCF insists: if François Bayrou announced in his DPG the repeal, or at least the suspension of the hated reform, “this would be an important sign towards employees and left-wing forces”. But for LFI, “there is nothing to negotiate”as Aurélie Trouvé maintains on France Info. “Are there really “left” deputies ready not to censor Retailleau, Darmanin, Borne and Valls? »asks MP Aurélien Le Coq on the social network

The gap between LFI and the rest of the left is becoming more and more gaping every day. Until the breakup? No one dares to predict the death of the NFP, but as always on the left, everyone passes the responsibility to each other. For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, it is the socialists, ecologists and communists who are scheming “in the back” of the NFP. For Olivier Faure, who considers that “the all-or-nothing left is today the nothing left”it’s the opposite: “It’s not me who breaks up, it’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon through his intransigence, through his presidential obsession”.

Beyond substantive differences, these clashes between allies above all illustrate the profound difference in agendas. The rebels are rushing headlong towards the next presidential election, which they hope will be as early as possible to catch everyone off guard, while the socialists and ecologists only think about the municipal elections, where they hope to keep control of the big cities. . Which involves the need to show oneself “ responsible ”, what is more on the budgetary level.

As for Olivier Faure, he is constrained by the imminence of a high-risk internal congress. The First Secretary of the PS, who was only narrowly reappointed two years ago, is seeking to spare his right wing, critical of the alliance with LFI. Already, rebellious executives are warning: “I am starting to sense the return of popular detestation of the PS at a post-Holland levelexplained Manuel Bompard to a few journalists on January 8. Olivier Faure was lucky to have Nupes, it allowed the PS to return to demonstrations. Be careful, the whistles could come back sooner than expected”.

Some are trying to make a different voice heard, to avoid the collapse of the NFP. “Feeding the machine of division with untimely declarations objectively serves Macron and the government which wants to fracture the NFP”alerts ex-LFI deputy Alexis Corbière, calling on each component to “keep your cool”. “No tactical disagreement should break the essential”he adds.

In any case, PS, PCF and Ecologists are continuing negotiations in Bercy. The real test will be that of the motion of censure, which the rebels are preparing to table. Will their allies vote for it? Depending on what happens next week, the divergence could become a chasm. And the breakup is inevitable.