Will the war never end? Huge Ukrainian sabotage may be planned against Trump’s peace plan

A Danube Institute Trump 2.0 At his conference, the invited experts sought answers to what kind of foreign policy we can expect from the United States under the ex-president returning to power.

John O’Sullivanthe president of the Danube Institute emphasized in his opening speech that with the victory of Donald Trump, a new era begins for the Republicans, the newly formed administration is more prepared to get to work than after the 2016 victory.

He added that the focus of the Republican administration is expected to be much more on China than on Europe and the Middle East. Consequently, Europe must start increasing defense spending now.

Many people predict the decline of the United States and the rise of China, but for now these are only projections based on current processes, but in the long term, according to John O’Sullivan the resilience of the USA should not be underestimated.

Lord David Frosta member of the House of Lords and former chief European adviser to Boris Johnson, said in his keynote speech that Donald Trump’s victory is a victory for conservative forces around the world, which is also a huge opportunity for the movement.

However, he emphasized that there are risks for the Trump administration, despite this, it is also a victory for foreign policy realism, which could be a real turning point in world politics.

Turning to the United Kingdom, he emphasized that they have two options to choose from when the new American administration takes office: either they reorient themselves towards the European Union or closer cooperation with the USA through a possible free trade agreement.

In the case of Ukraine Donald Trump may force a recalibration of the EU’s foreign and security policysince by advocating de-escalation, many Europeans may think that their security is tied to a complete victory for the Ukrainians.

Ukraine may escalate the war in the next two months

Balázs Orbán, the prime minister’s political director, stated at the panel discussion on the changing world order that the neoliberal description of the world order is no longer valid, and after the start of Covid and the Russian-Ukrainian war, this was already felt by the liberals. They responded to this by trying to divide the world into good (democracies) and bad (autocracies), but this meant bloc formation logic.

he declared.

According to Balázs Orbán, everyone in Europe is grateful to the United States for its role in the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union. During the period of socialism, the Americans showed an alternative to the countries of the Eastern Bloc.

The Biden administration wanted to get the Hungarian government to change its position, including on war, migration, gender politics and China, and previously they wanted to achieve changes in the Hungarian Basic Law during Hillary Clinton’s foreign ministry.

Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, the prime minister’s political director believed that we are currently in an extremely dangerous situation.

The Ukrainians want to continue the war, so escalation may be their strategy until the inauguration of Donald Trump, in order to prepare the new administration for a ready situation.

Europe must guarantee its own security

In another panel, the participants discussed the future of Ukraine, Israel and NATO. Doug Stokes British professor, guest researcher at the Danube Institute, spoke about the fact that NATO’s costs are very high, which is why the United States tried to distance itself from the military alliance even before Trump.

he said.

Stokes had serious criticism of Germany, as even under the leadership of Angela Merkel, the dependence on Russian energy put the EU in a precarious position.

Bassem Eidthe founder of the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group (PHRMG), says that the threat of terrorism in the Middle East is increasing, and American foreign policy should find a solution to this. He emphasized that the management of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza must begin with the release of the hostages, which is a prerequisite for meaningful international aid.

Michelle Watsonthe Danube Institute’s leading visiting researcher, pointed out that the election of Trump may reduce the role of private sector entrepreneurs in NATO, and this may encourage European countries to take a greater share in defense spending.

Europe is facing serious challenges

In the second panel, the possible effects of the elected Republican politician on the economy, trade and energy policy were discussed.

David Goldman an American economic strategist pointed out that Germans pay five times as much for electricity as Americans, while many German jobs are being lost due to deindustrialization.

Goldman also pointed out that energy policy has been prominent in Trump’s first term, particularly by promoting Germany’s transition away from Russian energy.

Randy Yaloz, according to the guest researcher of the Danube Institute, NATO will also play an important role in trade, and the increase in defense spending can be an important factor when concluding trade agreements. Data protection is an important limitation to the spread of new technologies in Europe, while in the United States, billion-dollar companies are being built from the monetization of data.

Kacper Kitaan expert at the Warsaw Institute, says that Trump’s protectionist approach may present new challenges to the EU, which will force it to rethink its energy strategy. The goals are similar to the first cycle, but the circumstances have changed, Europe is in a much more difficult situation. He cited the German government crisis as an example, as well as the fact that President Macron does not have a majority in the National Assembly in France.