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Ankara supports the Palestinians, criticizes Israel and closely monitors Iran’s influence in the region. Is there a possibility that Turkey will intervene militarily in the conflict, writes Deutsche Welle.
Fears that the war in the Middle East could spread have become even greater after the latest Iranian attack on Israel. This is an escalation that many countries have been warning about for months.
Iran is one of the regional powers in the Middle East. Turkey is also a regional power. The leadership in Ankara has been on the side of the Palestinian people since October 7, 2023, when Israel, responding to an attack by the terrorist organization Hamas, attacked the Gaza Strip. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel of “genocide”. For him, Hamas is not a terrorist organization, he constantly emphasizes that, and often talks about his “Palestinian brothers”.
“Israel wants to attack us”
Erdogan recently caused fear among his own population: in a speech to the Turkish parliament on October 1, 2024, he accused Israel of wanting to attack Turkey.
– In the Holy Land, the insane Israeli government will, in its religious fanaticism, after Palestine and Lebanon, perhaps aim at our homeland as well – he said. “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of occupying Anatolia and thus ‘pursues a utopia,'” Erdogan said.
Experts estimate that Erdogan’s statement is unrealistic.
– I think that this scenario is impossible – says Selin Nasi, a political scientist from the London School of Economics (LSE). “Turkey is a member of NATO. Attacking Turkey would mean clashing with NATO and the USA. Besides, Israel has no reason to attack Turkey,” she points out.
Erdogan is trying to consolidate his base with his statements and show that he is in solidarity with the Palestinians, says Nasi. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO. And not only that – it is also a close ally of the United States, just like Israel.
But for Erdogan, it’s about something else, says Ilter Turan, professor emeritus of international relations and former rector of Bilgi University in Istanbul.
– The president instrumentalizes foreign policy for his domestic political goals. Israel has no such intentions under any circumstances. The Turkish government is trying to divert people’s attention to other topics, given the major failures on the domestic political front – says Turan.
Erdogan himself, as the professor adds, has lost political support since the last local elections at the latest, and the country is in an economic crisis.
Would Turkey get involved?
According to Turan, the probability that Turkey will ever become one of the warring parties is zero.
– Turkey will not actively participate in the conflict, because Ankara does not want to be part of the war – he claims. “In truth, the Turkish government will not approve Israel’s possible retaliation against Iran, because Turkey maintains a ‘distanced friendship’ with Iran.” Ankara may be able to offer moral support to Tehran, but nothing more than that,” Professor Turan believes.
Selina Nasi. says that due to the pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel stance of the Turkish government, the impression has been made that it supports Iran and its militias. That’s a fallacy.
– Turkey is currently concentrating on stabilizing its own economy, and a regional conflict would only bring additional instability. That is why Turkey cannot be expected to intervene in Gaza or Lebanon. Turkey will not want to have a military conflict with Israel – predicts Nasi.
How does Turkey view Hezbollah?
The essential difference between Turkey and Iran, two Islamic countries, consists in the different interpretation of Islam. Turkey is predominantly Sunni, and President Erdogan’s government primarily supports Sunni organizations such as Hamas, which the EU and the US consider a terrorist organization.
In contrast, Iran’s population is mostly Shia, which leads to close ties between the Iranian regime and Shia groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthi rebels in Yemen. Those religious-political differences also affect the geopolitical alliances of the two countries.
The difference was also noticeable when Ankara recently expressed condolences: when the head of Hamas, Ismail Hani, was killed, Erdogan declared a state of mourning for him. After the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Erdogan expressed solidarity with the Lebanese people, but did not mention Nasrallah’s name. “It is understandable and not surprising that there is no similar impact,” says Professor Turan.
Source: www.vesti-online.com
