The number of young programmers is declining. Photo: Erik Process
According to the Department of Statistics’ quick labor market statistics, over the past year and a half, both in the information and communications sector as a whole and in the narrower field of computer programming, fewer young people aged 20-29 have been working. While in previous years the programming sector grew precisely due to young people, over the past year their number in this sector has decreased.
In the last decade, the ICT sector has been a model for the Estonian labour market in terms of indicators: the highest salaries, an increase in the number of employees even in the midst of the crisis, the greatest shortage of an educated workforce according to employers, and the greatest ambitions for growth.
The employment register data showed that over the past year and a half, the number of employment relationships in the information and communications sector has fallen significantly. As of June this year, there were about 36,000 workers registered. Of these, more than half (22,000) were registered in the computer programming, consulting and other related services sector.
In 2019-2023, the computer programming, consulting and other related services sector created the most new jobs in the information and communications sector, with 7,700, but over the past year there have been 600 fewer jobs there again. Changes in other sectors have been less significant, but almost all of them have seen a decline over the past year.
Photo: Department of Statistics
Young programmers have been replaced by middle-aged workers
According to Kadri Rootalu, a data specialist at the Department of Statistics, the biggest changes in the programming industry are among young workers. “While the number of employment relationships in the computer programming industry used to grow due to young workers, this growth has slowed down over the past year, and the number of workers aged 20-29 has actually decreased,” Rootalu noted. For example, in June 2022, there were 6,130 people aged 20-29 working in the computer programming industry, while as of the end of June this year, the number of young workers had decreased to 5,070. At the same time, there are more workers aged 40 and over in this industry: in 2022, there were 5,720 people aged 40-69 working there, while in June this year, there were already 6,880.
Young professionals are leaving the industry
In the computer programming industry, the number of young specialists, such as software developers, application programmers, system analysts, system administrators, etc., has decreased the most. If in June 2023, 3,920 people aged 20-29 worked in the programming industry as specialists, then in June of this year there were only 3,370. In other age groups, such a significant reduction in the number of specialists was not observed, but in the age group of 40-59 years, on the contrary, there were more of them.
Photo: Department of Statistics
What caused these changes?
Kadri Rootalu, a data specialist at the Statistics Estonia, noted that the decrease in the share of young people in the information and communications sector and in the narrower field of computer programming partly corresponds to changes in the composition of the population. While in 2019, the number of Estonian residents aged 20–29 was 153,000, as of 1 January 2024, it was only 136,000. At the same time, the number of people aged 40–49 has increased by more than 10,000 over these years.
“It can be assumed that the young people who started working in the programming industry in previous years have simply become older,” Rootalu noted. At the same time, according to her, the question remains as to why the number of young people in the programming industry has decreased in the last two years, if the share of young people in the general population has been decreasing for a long time. “Those who left the programming industry stand out only because they are young. Of them, almost two-thirds have Estonian citizenship and half have a higher education,” Rootalu added.
Source: www.dv.ee
