Ziarul Financiar: 2025 from the perspective of European leaders
Olaf Scholz asks Germans to stay united, France’s Macron enters the new year admitting his mistakes, Viktor Orban promises Hungarian families more money, Poland’s Donald Tusk wants to strengthen Europe’s security and the president of the eurosceptic Czech Republic praises the euro as a bringer of well-being.
In his message to the people on the last day of last year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the fate of the country rests in the hands of its citizens and that the way forward is the one that the nation resists united. Germany had still not recovered from the shock caused by the murderous attack at the Christmas market in the city of Magdeburg. The politician also said that the Germans are the ones who can make 2025 a good year.
He was encouraged to say this because a last-ditch deal last year between car industry giant Volkswagen and unions for 120,000 workers averted factory closures in Germany.
Such a measure would have been a political bombshell, the result of a deindustrialization trend that accelerated after Germany lost cheap Russian gas and the electrification race in the auto industry. Germans are called to vote in early parliamentary elections in February. Olaf Scholz is a pale political figure, and his social-democratic party, SPD, relied in the previous elections, those for the European Parliament, on mobilizing voters against the rise of far-right formations.
He lost the bet. Analysts say that 2025 will require courage from the country’s politicians because the economy and society urgently need reforms. Otherwise, even darker days will come. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, must change its growth model, based on cheap energy and irreplaceable exports to large markets. Meanwhile, Scholz condemned foreign interference in the upcoming elections. France is the second largest economy in Europe.
And she has problems, especially because of huge debts. In a New Year’s address, President Emmanuel Macron, who brought political instability to his country through uninspired electoral calculations, admitted he had erred by forcing early elections, a rare moment of remorse for him, Reuters observed. This election divided the parliament rather than creating solutions for the French people, Macron explained, saying that lucidity and humility made him admit his error.
One result of the government’s instability is that France entered 2025 without a state budget. Through the New Year’s speech, the president opened the way for the use of referendums. He did not speak, but said he would ask the French to decide on “important” matters. He did not explain what they were.
Britain left the EU following a referendum uninspired by a pro-EU political leader. On international affairs, Macron said the EU should stop being “naive” about international trade as US President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office this month, threatens to impose higher tariffs the imports.
“We must refuse the commercial rules established by others that only we must respect. We have to say no to anything that makes us more dependent on others”, said the president, noting that security should not be considered something that comes by itself.
“That is why Europe should not leave its security and defense in the hands of other powers.”
On security, in the context of the war started by Russia in Ukraine, insists, through the pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Poland, which on January 1 took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from Hungary. 2025 will be a year that can decide Tusk’s political fate and Poland’s role on the international stage.
In May there will be elections for the president and in Poland the president has the right to veto the government’s decisions. The current president was the representative of the PiS party, considered a nationalist and argued with the European Commission for reasons related to the violation of the principles of the rule of law. Therefore, the Polish presidency of the Council is seen as having a high political charge. In the conditions in which the leaders of Germany and France entered a cone of shadow, 2025 offers Poland and Tusk the chance to impose themselves on the European political scene. Poland has the advantage of being a reliable ally of the USA and, through its enormous defense spending, of being liked by Donald Trump. But, observers say, Tusk will be limited by domestic politics in any major pro-European initiatives.
A recent opinion poll found that 60% of Poles fear what 2025 may bring them. Most respondents fear Poland’s involvement in the war started by Russia. Until January 1, the presidency of the EU Council was held by Hungary, which oriented its initiatives towards the EU approach of the Western Balkans, where Budapest has allies such as Serbia and Republika Srpska, a political entity of Bosnia led by a controversial politician pro- Serbian, of the Union. But Serbia does not even want to hear about joining the EU.
Therefore, Hungary did not manage to bring the Western Balkans too close to the EU, but managed to lose access to European funds of one billion euros because it did not make progress in eradicating corruption. The Budapest government has declared 2025 the year of the Hungarian family and business, and the economy ministry has announced a new government economic action plan aimed at increasing incomes, providing cheap housing for young people and growing SMEs, according to Daily News Hungary.
On the occasion of the winter holidays, Prime Minister Viktor Orban received a gift from the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in the form of a message with festive wishes. Instead, Hungary offered a gift, in the form of political asylum, to a former deputy minister of justice from Poland from the PiS party. Although PiS is deeply anti-Russian, and Fidesz, the ruling party of Hungary, is pro-Russian, the two parties resonate through the policies of eroding the power of the European Commission.
While PiS was in power in Poland, the two countries formed a common front within the Visegrad Group, alongside the Czech Republic and Slovakia. With the coming to power of Tusk’s government, Poland and Hungary moved away from each other, and the political relations between them became conflictual. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made it clear that Warsaw does not want the Hungarian ambassador to be present at the inauguration of the Polish presidency of the EU Council on January 3, Rzeczpospolita newspaper notes.
And the Czech Republic seems to have returned to the pro-EU and pro-democracy path. In his New Year’s speech, President Petr Pavel called for unity, saying that “we must not let the concept of peace divide us”. He explained that this concept has become a tool of manipulation. In Europe and elsewhere there are politicians, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who call for peace between Russia and Ukraine, but on terms that would make Russia the winner, and say that the West, by helping Ukraine, is encouraging war.
The Czech Republic massively supported the Kiev army with weapons. Likewise Poland. Hungary chose to block European military and financial aid destined for Ukraine. Also, President Pavel asked the citizens to appreciate the freedoms they have and not to confuse the lack of satisfaction with the current living conditions with democratic values. He also said that adopting the euro would bring prosperity. The Czech Republic is considered a Eurosceptic country. There will be parliamentary elections in the autumn.
Source: www.mediafax.ro
